Antigua says it believes it is entitled to US$3.44bn in compensation to settle its long-running dispute with the US in the WTO but with other nations, including Brazil, India and Japan, looking to join the European Union in seeking retaliatory trade settlements over the US decision to rewrite its GATS commitments, the final bill could be much higher.

The United States took a giant leap forward in efforts to withdraw gambling services from its commitments to the WTO’s GATS treaty after agreeing a compensation package with the European Union on Monday. The withdrawal will prevent other countries from taking up a case won by Antigua at the WTO earlier this year but the remote gambling industry continues to feel that fair trade issues remain a strong argument in favour of regulation in the US.

The United States has proposed that Antigua receive as little as $500,000 in compensation for the US’s WTO non-compliant restrictions that have harmed the Caribbean nation’s internet betting operators. Meanwhile, US negotiations with other trading partners, including the European Union and Macau, to withdraw gambling from its GATS commitments are showing no signs of early resolution.

The United States is nearing a final settlement with WTO trade partners to withdraw its gambling commitments under international trade treaties, but the talks are taking the trade negotiators into unknown territory as issues of retrospective amnesties are discussed.

The United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) announcement that it would withdraw gambling from its commitments to the WTO’s General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) has been met with consternation by foreign-based operators and international trade watchers alike but the US risks far more than its popularity over the move.

A World Trade Organisation Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) arbitration panel has concluded that the Caribbean twin-island nation of Antigua & Barbuda is entitled to trade concessions worth just US$21m per year from the United States because of the their non compliant restrictions applied against remote betting operators based in Antigua. The decision leaves the US in a stronger position as it seeks to re-write its WTO fair trade commitments as they apply to gambling.

A World Trade Organisation arbitration panel is set to decide on November 30 precisely how much compensation Antigua should be entitled to over US restrictions applied to remote betting. However, observers warn that an outcome favourable to the US may only harden the superpower’s aggressive stance at the WTO and suggest that this position may be maintained even under the next Administration.

Antigua will be forced to impose sanctions against the US if efforts to find a negotiated settlement to its long-running dispute over internet gaming continue to be thwarted by Washington, the Prime Minister warned.

Antigua’s WTO victory over the United States in the matter of provision of Internet gambling services may, in itself, count for little in the bigger picture.

Hopes that Antigua’s long running feud with the United States may finally be resolved have been dashed after a US trade delegation visit produced no agreements. The island’s government has warned it could be months before a deal is reached.