Antigua says it believes it is entitled to US$3.44bn in compensation to settle its long-running dispute with the US in the WTO but with other nations, including Brazil, India and Japan, looking to join the European Union in seeking retaliatory trade settlements over the US decision to rewrite its GATS commitments, the final bill could be much higher.

The United States has proposed that Antigua receive as little as $500,000 in compensation for the US’s WTO non-compliant restrictions that have harmed the Caribbean nation’s internet betting operators. Meanwhile, US negotiations with other trading partners, including the European Union and Macau, to withdraw gambling from its GATS commitments are showing no signs of early resolution.

A World Trade Organisation Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) arbitration panel has concluded that the Caribbean twin-island nation of Antigua & Barbuda is entitled to trade concessions worth just US$21m per year from the United States because of the their non compliant restrictions applied against remote betting operators based in Antigua. The decision leaves the US in a stronger position as it seeks to re-write its WTO fair trade commitments as they apply to gambling.

A World Trade Organisation arbitration panel is set to decide on November 30 precisely how much compensation Antigua should be entitled to over US restrictions applied to remote betting. However, observers warn that an outcome favourable to the US may only harden the superpower’s aggressive stance at the WTO and suggest that this position may be maintained even under the next Administration.

The European Commission’s threat to launch a case at the WTO over the United States' possible prosecution of EU-based remote gambling firms is unlikely to worry trade officials in Washington DC, according to a leading trade policy expert.

Lawyer Mark Mendel has expressed confidence that powerful nations will join Antigua in claiming compensation over the United States’ decision to withdraw from its WTO GATS commitments on gambling. Speaking at the GIGSE event in Montreal yesterday, Mendel, who represents Antigua’s government, said that more support could bring about a u-turn in Washington.

Mark Mendel, legal counsel for Antigua & Barbuda in its dispute with the United States, has confirmed that a total of eight countries have filed claims for compensation over the US’s decision to exclude gambling from the list of services covered by its GATS commitments.

While a settlement in the long running dispute between the United States and Antigua over compensation for restrictions on online gambling appears to be heading for arbitration, the Eastern Caribbean Island nation has pointed out some obvious flaws in the calculations being made by its opponents.

The United States took a giant leap forward in efforts to withdraw gambling services from its commitments to the WTO’s GATS treaty after agreeing a compensation package with the European Union on Monday. The withdrawal will prevent other countries from taking up a case won by Antigua at the WTO earlier this year but the remote gambling industry continues to feel that fair trade issues remain a strong argument in favour of regulation in the US.

The European Union has announced that it plans to seek compensation under GATS article 21 over the United States’ proposed amendment to its commitments on gambling.